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2019 US Life
The AI Causal Graph delineates the true determinants of financial strength. At the top of the graph, data from public annual reports is inputted. These variables are synthesized to ultimately produce the Economic Capital Ratio. Green nodes signify the company's strengths relative to the market average, enhancing financial robustness, whereas red nodes indicate weaknesses.
The Causal Effects in each node indicate the individual impact of that variable on the final node, the Economic Capital Ratio. They reveal the extent to which the Economic Capital Ratio increases or decreases relative to the industry average. Cumulatively, these effects contribute to the overall Economic Capital Ratio.
| Causal Effects | EFFECT IN % POINTS |
|---|---|
| Liability for Future Policy Benefit | 5.27 |
| Liabilities | -5.15 |
| Stockholders Equity | -4.34 |
| ECR before LimitedLiability | -3.40 |
| Separate Account, Liability | 5.62 |
| Other Liabilities | -16.6 |
| Other Expenses | 4.01 |
| Expenses | 6.39 |
| Net Income | 0.491 |
The Input Variables consist of the absolute values from the public annual report data entered into the valuation model.
| Input Variables | IN 1000 USD |
|---|---|
| Benefits | 1,057,000 |
| Debt Securities, Available-for-sale | 0 |
| Insurance Commissions and Fees | 170,000 |
| Liability for Future Policy Benefit | 5,806,000 |
| Mortgage Loans on Real Estate, Net | 0 |
| Net Investment Income | 674,000 |
| Other Assets | 36,714,000 |
| Other Compr. Net Income | 1,418,000 |
| Other Expenses | 549,000 |
The output variables are the absolute values as calculated by the valuation model.
| Output Variables | IN 1000 USD |
|---|---|
| Liabilities | 33,971,000 |
| Assets | 36,714,000 |
| Expenses | 1,606,000 |
| Revenues | 2,113,000 |
| Stockholders Equity | 2,743,000 |
| Net Income | 507,000 |
| Comprehensive Net Income | 1,925,000 |
| BaseVar | 37,911,000 |
| ECR before LimitedLiability | 9.3% |
| Economic Capital Ratio | 25% |
The Feature Distribution illustrates the distribution of the model variables' effect values across the industry. The specific effect of the company in question within this distribution is indicated by a black arrow. The top two charts highlight the company's greatest strengths, whereas the bottom two charts reveal its most significant weaknesses.
The strengths and weaknesses plot shows how the company's greatest strengths and weaknesses develop over time. The corresponding impact measures the percentage point increase or decrease in the Economic Capital Ratio.
The Regression compares the forecasted company valuation with the observed stock market values. A positive correlation suggests that the model effectively explains market prices. A company's valuation above the regression line indicates that the company is overvalued, otherwise it is undervalued.
The Balance Sheet plot illustrates the evolution of Assets and Liabilities over time. The difference between them, known as Equity, represents the accumulation of past profits.
The Profit & Loss plot shows the development of Revenues and Expenses over time. The difference between these, either as Profit or Loss, reflects the surplus from the previous year.
The RealRate Index shows how financial health develops over time. The blue line shows the evolution of the Economic Capital Ratio for the individual company. This is compared to the distribution of all other companies. The change in the company's financial strength is shown in the lower part.
| Benefits | 2.16 |
| Net Investment Income | -0.388 |
| Revenues | -5.16 |
| Premiums Earned, Net | -5.05 |
| Other Revenues | 0.348 |
| Debt Securities, Available-for-sale | -10.0 |
| Mortgage Loans on Real Estate, Net | -1.78 |
| Other Assets | 12.8 |
| Separate Account, Assets | -4.16 |
| Comprehensive Net Income | 2.30 |
| Other Compr. Net Income | 1.79 |
| Economic Capital Ratio | -2.91 |
| Other Liabilities |
| 28,165,000 |
| Other Net Income | 0 |
| Other Revenues | 1,269,000 |
| Premiums Earned, Net | 0 |
| Separate Account, Assets | 0 |
| Separate Account, Liability | 0 |